The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has never faced a more piquant image problem as it does today. COVID-19 pandemic has shaken up the entire world and brought focus onto the threat the Chinese regime poses to the world community. Despite stiff opposition from PRC, 116 countries across the Globe have joined hands to pass a motion for an independent investigation into the origins of the Corona Virus. In this entire sordid saga, the reputation of the WHO has also taken a solid beating since the WHO has been perceived to be sympathetic towards PRC and consequently it soft peddled the crises until it had no option but to declare it as a pandemic. Too little too late. The Chinese response to accusations has been bewildering – oscillating between whining, petulant posturing to outright bullying. China’s image as a responsible global player and reliable trade partner has taken a severe beating. The Chinese leadership has never been as threatened and isolated as it is today and is trying to divert world attention of being responsible for the contagion by creating strategic and tactical flash points. This kind of behavior from Chinese leadership resorting to obfuscation and deception to deflect from its internal crises and failures has been a set pattern and was expected.

China behaves like a big bully in the region. Its expansionist policy for land and sea grab makes it follow a set pattern of nibbling at territories. Thinly populated or unpopulated territories have been targeted with Chinese moves in South China Sea and Sino Indian Border being prime examples. Besides China’s Debt trap policy which is a part of its geo strategic policy is a type of diplomacy based on debt in bilateral relations between countries but with a totally negative intent. China intentionally has been extending excessive debt (as a creditor country) to a debtor country which is generally a developing country, with the sole intent of subsequently extracting political /economic concessions when the debt country is unable to honor its debt obligations. Examples are few African countries who have a huge Chinese debt are Angola, Zambia, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and North Sudan etc. Once the debt countries fail to honor their debt repayment obligations China takes over such debt ridden projects. Examples are State Electricity Company in Zambia, a strategic port in Djibouti (China’s first overseas Base), a Satellite Tracking Station in Argentina, theHambantota Port also known as the MagampuraMahindaRajapaksa Port in Srilanka etc. Even Gwadhar port as part of CPEC is expected to go the same way once Pakistan defaults on debt repayments which is a certainty.

China is a very bad neighbor. It has a border dispute with 18 countries viz Japan, Vietnam, Nepal, North Korea, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Bhutan, Taiwan, Laos, Brunei, Tajikistan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia and India.  South China Sea is a strategically important shipping route which accounts for one third of the total Global maritime trade. It also accounts for 80% of China’s energy imports and 40% of China’s total trade. Besides China by trying to control South China Sea is also eying the maritime resources and oil and natural gas deposits which are estimated at 17.7 Billion Tons of Crude. Kuwait in comparison has 13 Billion Tons of crude. The South China Sea has approx 250 sparely / uninhabited islands as per its habit, China is trying to take over as many islands as possible these islands. China’s attempt to establish supremacy over the South China Sea has upset many countries.

China, to the outside world looks like one compact well administered country. However, this is just an illusion. In reality there are a lot of simmering issues which threaten the very existence China.The country comprises 56 ethnic groups. The Han Chinese are the majority group comprising 91% of the Chinese population while the other 55 ethnic groups make up forthe balance9%. Thereare 22provinces  and   five Autonomous Regions, four Municipalities and two Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong& Macao). The cultural diversity of China is to be seen to be believed.

China has more than its fair share of internal problems. The Xinjiang Autonomous Region in China's far west has had a long history of discord between the authorities and the indigenous ethnic Uighur population.The largest of China's administrative regions, Xinjiang borders eight countries - Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India - and till recently its population was mostly Uighur.Most Uighurs are Muslim and Islam is an important part of their life. Their language is related to Turkish, and they regard themselves as culturally and ethnically close to Central Asian nations.The region's economy has largely revolved around agriculture and trade, with towns such as Kashgar thriving as hubs along the famous Silk Road.But development has brought new residents. In the 2000 census, Han Chinese made up 40% of the population, as well as large numbers of troops stationed in the region and unknown numbers of unregistered migrants.

In the 1990s, open support for separatist groups increased post collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of independent Muslim states in Central Asia.However, Beijing suppressed demonstrations and activists went underground.While the situation is complex, many say that ethnic tensions caused by economic and cultural factors are the root cause of the recent violence. Activists say Uighur commercial and cultural activities have been gradually curtailed by the Chinese state. There are complaints of severe restrictions on Islam, with fewer mosques and strict control over religious schools.In July 2014, the Xinjiang government departments banned Muslim civil servants from fasting during the holy month of Ramadan.China has been accused of intensifying its crackdown on the Uighurs after street protests in the 1990s and again in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics in 2008.But things really escalated in 2009, with large-scale ethnic rioting in the regional capital, Urumqi. In response to the slew of attacks, the authorities launched what they call a "year-long campaign against terrorism", stepping up security in Xinjiang and conducting more military drills in the region.There have also been reports of mass sentencings and arrests of several "terror groups". Chinese state media have reported long lists of people convicted of extremist activity and in some cases, death sentences.Some 800,000 to 2 million Uighurs and other Muslims have been in detention since April 2017. Besides the camps, 11 million Uighur Muslims continue to suffer due to crack down by Chinese authorities.

The Tiananmen Square protests or the Tiananmen Square Incident, commonly known as the June Fourth Incident in mainland China, were student-led demonstrations held in Tiananmen Square in Beijing during 1989. The students called for greater accountability, constitutional due process, democracy, freedom of the press, and freedom of speech, although they were highly disorganized and their goals varied. At the height of the protests, about 1 million people assembled in the Square.

The popular national movement inspired by the Beijing protests is sometimes called the '89 Democracy The protests started on April 15 and were forcibly suppressed on June 4 when the government declared martial law and sent the military to occupy central parts of Beijing. In what became known as the Tiananmen Square troops with assault rifles and tanks fired at the demonstrators and those trying to block the military's advance into Tiananmen Square. Estimates of the death toll vary from several hundred to several thousand, with thousands more wounded. By May, a student-led hunger strike galvanized support for the demonstrators around the country, and the protests spread to some 400 cities. The State Council declared martial law on May 20 and mobilized as many as 300,000 troops to Beijing. The troops advanced into central parts of Beijing on the city's major thoroughfaresin the early morning hours of June 4, killing both demonstrators and bystanders in the process. The Chinese government made widespread arrests of protesters and their supporters, suppressed other protests around China, expelled foreign journalists, strictly controlled coverage of the events in the domestic press, strengthened the police and internal security forces, and demoted or purged officials it deemed sympathetic to the protests Its memory is widely associated with questioning the legitimacy of Communist Party rule and remains one of the most sensitive and most widely censored topics in China. The scars of Tiananmen Square have yet to heal.

     China today is in a state of turmoil both internally and externally. It is staring at an economic challenge which stems from the latest trend towards “desinicization” of the world supply chain. Companies around the world are expected to alter their supply chain so as to be less dependent on China in the wake of the COVID pandemic. Europe and US are in process of recalibratingtheir dependency on China and are wanting to diversify their supply chain closer home. The break-up of the supply chain if it happens will be catastrophic for China’s economy. Retail sales have declined by 20%, GDP has declined drastically as compared to same period last year, and SMEs which are considered as engines for Chinese economy have suffered the most due to the pandemic. The gap between the poor and the few rich in China is widening. The mishandling of the situation in Hong Kong has made China look like a big bully. China's standing in the eyes of the world has suffered. The very survivability of the Chinese president Xi Jinping is being discussed in hushed tones. China thus has reached a tipping point and most of its nations could be free nations in the very near future. The Chinese government is trying its best to shift the focus from the pandemic to Taiwan, Ladakh stand off and posturing against the US led “Quad” in the South China Sea. To ensure his survival and to rouse nationalist feeling Xi Jinping is resorting to escalating non issues and stand offs. The authoritarian rule does not permit open uprisings but there is an uneasy calm prevailing in China today.

China is widely expected to go the Soviet Union way. It may get divided into seven or more different countries. For the present day Chinese youth the ideas of Confucius are not exciting any more. As per them, the real china lives east of the Heihe-Tengchong line. The Chinese are upset with the CPC for wasting national wealth on Xinjiang and Tibet, OBOR and CPEC. The Chinese population has never forgiven the government for the manner it handled the Tiananmen Square incident. Uighurs and other Muslims are equally perturbed. The mishandling of the pandemic and resultant economic crises has taken the country towards negative economic growth. Human rights are virtually non-existent and leadership of CPC holds supremacy over the law. Media is shackled, freedom of internet is non-existent, religious worship is taboo and the disparity between haves and have-nots is at an all-time high. It will not be an exaggeration to say that a catalyst is all what is required to start a movement.  

      Developments over last 48 hours are interesting. France has committed to militarily support India. The United States and Germany have blocked Chinese move in the UNSC blaming India for the blast at Karachi Stock Exchange. The United States has backed India for blocking Chinese Apps. UK has offered residence to 3 million people from Hong Kong. United States has banned Huawei for its CPP Links while Russia has agreed for early deliveries of S-400 missiles. The United States is to train Indian, Australian and Japanese pilots in Guam Island and Myanmar has called out China for arming terror Gps. Things are certainly heating up for the dragon and future actions by countries against China will be watched with a lot of interest. However, the Dragon is not going to go down without a fight. Crystal ball gazing would have been interesting.