The time to elect the ‘Most Powerful Person on Earth” that is the American President, has dawned upon us once again. This is an event that happens in the month of November of every leap year of the 21^st Century. The final verdict IS decided by an intriguing game of numbers, that is popularly known as “The Race To 270”. This Blog has been compiled to demystify the complex exercise and give a basic overview that will summarize the major terminologies and numerical aspects involved in this fascinating election process. It should help the layman to understand the meaning of this famous epithet of the American electoral lexicon - “Race to 270” which is what the election is ultimately all about.

WHO IS THE POTUS?

The acronym POTUS stands for the “President of the United States”. In the American Constitution, the President is both the Head of State and the Head of Government of the United States, who is indirectly elected to a 4-year term by the people through an Electoral College. The officeholder leads the Executive Branch of the Federal Government and is also the Commander-in-Chief of the United States Armed Forces.

BACKGROUND

To get a perspective on the matter, it is important to briefly delve into its history. The office of the US President was established over two centuries ago, in 1789. Since then only 44 men have served as the President till date, even though there are 45 Presidents. The first President, George Washington had won a unanimous vote of the Electoral College. The reason why we have only 44 persons in the count is because of an interesting fact that Grover Cleveland was the only President who served two non-consecutive terms in office and is, therefore, the only person who is counted twice, as the 22nd and the 24th President of the United States. Donald Trump is the 45^th US President and has been in office since January 20, 2017.

The shortest presidency in American Presidential history is of William Henry Harrison, who died 31 days after taking office in 1841. The longest presidency was of Franklin D. Roosevelt who served over twelve years, before dying early in his fourth term in 1945. He is also the only U.S. president to have served more than two terms. Since the ratification of the Twenty-Second Amendment to the United States Constitution in 1951, no person may be elected President more than twice, and no one who has served more than two years of a term to which someone else was elected may be elected more than once.Interestingly, in its 231 years long history only four Presidents have died in harness due to natural causes i.e. William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Warren G. Harding, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Fore Four Presidents have been assassinated i.e. Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy. One President Richard Nixon resigned from office facing impeachment. John Tyler was the first Vice President to assume the presidency during a presidential term.

 BREAKDOWN OF PARTIES OF THE 45 PRESIDENTS

 The landscape of American polity has long been controlled by the two dominant political forces - the Democratic and the Republican parties. It was more than 167 years ago when the 13^th President Millard Fillman who belonged to the Whig Party, and tenanted the office from 1850 to 1853, that someone other than a Democrat or Republican was the President. Hence out of the total of 45 there have been 19 Presidents from the Republican Party, followed by 15 from the Democratic Party. Of the remaining 11 Presidents, four came from the Democratic-Republican Party, 4 from the Whig Party, 2 belonged to the Federalist Party, and 1 from the Union Party. The first President George Washington belonged to the Federalist Party. So all in all there are only 6 parties to which all the 45 Presidents belonged to.

 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Now to make a better sense of the electoral process itself, we all need to understand the Electoral College system that is used for it. In these elections each of the 50 states of the USA, and the District Of Columbia - DC are allotted “electoral votes” based on their population to make up the National Electoral College.It basically refers to the group of presidential electors that are required by the United States Constitution to be formed every 4 years for the sole purpose of electing the President and Vice President of the United States.

PRESIDENTIAL TICKET

In the United States, political parties nominate one candidate each for the President and the Vice President of the United States. These candidates attempt to win presidential elections by taking a majority of the electoral vote. The two candidates together are known as a ‘Presidential Ticket’. Like this year we have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on the Democratic presidential ticket.

THE CITIZENS ELECT THE ELECTORS WHO IN TURN ELECT THE PRESIDENT

In effect, the American citizens cast votes for electors, and do not vote directly for the presidential candidates themselves. Each elector represents one vote in the Electoral College. All but two states use a winner-take-all approach.  That means the candidate that wins the most votes in any particular state, gets all the electoral votes from that state. However,2 out of the 51 entities involved in the election, namely Maine and Nebraska are exceptions to the above Rule. This is because they use a more complex district-based allocation system that could result in their combined 9 electoral votes being split up between candidates in a variety of variations that could range from 9-0 to 5-4.The provisions for the process to be followed for the election is given in Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution of the United States. Each state appoints electors selected in a manner its legislature determines, to the Electoral College.There are currently a total of 538 electors in all. Therefore, for an absolute majority of electoral votes, a total of at least 270 or more, is required to win the election.

THE DAY OF ELECTION

Traditionally the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November is when the American voters elect their President. The election of the President of The United States is a two-step process. First voters cast their ballots on election day in each state. The ballots can also be cast by post or by early in-person vote. This process will then elect the electors who will form the Electoral College that will formally choose the President.The 2020 United States Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial Presidential Election. The Presidential Electors who are elected in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new Democratic President and Vice President or reelect the incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence respectively.

STATE-WISE ELECTORAL VOTES

The electoral importance of each state can be measured by the votes they have. California has the most electoral votes with 55followed by Texas with 38.Florida and New York have the third most electoral votes with 29 each followed by Illinois and Pennsylvania with 20 each. These six states have a consolidated total of 191 votes which is 33% of the total votes.Therefore, in the run up to 270, if a ticket gets these 6 states, they would have 191 votes or 70% of the target and the requirement for reaching the magical figure of 270 is just another 79 votes. If you add another six states i.eOhio-18, Georgia-16, Michigan-16, North Carolina-15, and New Jersey-14 the magic figure is reached.  The total of the top 11 states is exactly 270. Therefore, mathematically speaking, 11 states make up the winning 50% of the votes, while the rest of the 40 constituentstotal up to balance 268 only. This comparison brings into focus the sharp disparity in weightage between the states. The top 11 states add up to 270 and allow the candidate to win by crossing the 50% halfway mark whereas the bottom 34 which is 3 times the number of states with a total of 199 votes accounts for only 34% of the total.Therefore,it is of primary importance to get as many of the top 15 states to be in a comfortable position.

RED STATES AND BLUE STATES

Since the Presidential elections of 2000, the moniker ‘Red States’ and ‘Blue States’ refer to states of the United States whose voters predominantly choose presidential candidates either the Republican Party identified as Red or Democratic Party identified as Blue. The term, therefore, differentiates between states being perceived as Democrat and those perceived as Republican strong holds. In actuality, all states contain both liberal and conservative voters, they are the voters in "Purple" but then they end up appearing Blue or Red on the electoral map because of the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College. This perception of some states as "Blue" and some as "Red" was reinforced on noticing a degree of partisan stability from an election to election analysis from the base-year 2000. Psephologists had found that from the elections of 2000 to the election of 2004, only 3 states had changed their color. A detailed study of the pattern of voting in the 4 election cycles until 2016, found that 37 out of 50 states have voted for the same party in every presidential election, that made a compelling case for categorizing and identifying the various states in Red or Blue colors, hence it’s introduction into the electoral lexicon.

LIST OF TRADITIONALLY RED STATES & BLUE STATES

There are a total of 22 states that can be considered as traditionally Red they are Alabama-9, Alaska-3, Arizona-11, Arkansas-6, Georgia-16, Idaho-4, Kansas-6, Kentucky-8, Louisiana-8, Mississippi-6, Missouri-10, Montana-3, Nebraska-5, North Dakota-3, Oklahoma-7, South Carolina-9, South Dakota-3, Tennessee-11, Texas-38, Utah-6, West Virginia-5, & Wyoming-3. The cumulative total votes from these states are 180.

There are a total of 21 states that can be considered as traditionally Blue, they areCalifornia-55, Connecticut-7, Delaware-3, DC-3, Hawaii-4, Illinois-20, Maine-4, Maryland-10, Massachusetts-11, Michigan-16, Minnesota-10, New Hampshire-4, New Jersey-14, New Mexico-5, New York-29, Oregon-7, Pennsylvania-20, Rhode Island-4, Vermont-3, Washington-12 & Wisconsin-10. The cumulative total votes from these states are 251. 

SWING STATES

The term “Swing State” or “Battleground State” in the American elections, refers to any state that could be won by either the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate by effecting a swing in the voting pattern. The poll strategists of both parties target these states, for hectic last-minute campaigning in the hope of gaining the favor of the voter by their rhetoric. This becomes imperative especially in a polarized and highly competitive election such as the current one.There are no permanent members in this list because in every election different states come into play as likely swing states. For the 2020 elections, the political pundits have identified these 10 states with 179 electoral votes, as the likely swing states, therefore whichever ticket wins a majority of them, will most likely end up victorious.These states are Arizona-11, Florida-29, Georgia-16, Iowa-6, Michigan-16, North Carolina-15, Ohio-18, Pennsylvania-20, Texas-38 and Wisconsin-10.Out of the above list, the most crucial are these 3 “toss-up” states of Florida-29, Georgia-16, and Texas-38 with a total of 83 crucial votes.

BELLWETHER STATES

In electoral politics, the term “Bellwether State” applies to describe a state whose election results in favor of a particular party, predicts the eventual victory of the ticket at a national level. So generally, a victory in a bellwether state is indicative of a final victory, it is not sacrosanct, as is evident from the many misses listed. Ohio has maintained a perfect record of predicting winners from 1960. The 6 American bellwether states with respect to presidential elections with less than 3 misses are as under: Ohio – 2 misses 1944 & 1960, perfect since 1964. Currently the longest perfect streak.

Florida – 2 misses 1960 & 1992.

Nevada – 3 misses 1908, 1976 & 2016.

Missouri – 3 misses 1956, 2008 & 2012.

New Mexico – 3 misses 1976, 2000 & 2016.

Tennessee – 3 misses 1960, 2008 & 2012.

 INAUGURATION

The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021. If elected, Biden would become the oldest person to serve as President at 78 years old on the day of his inauguration, and the first candidate to defeat an incumbent president in 28 years since Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican George H. W. Bush in 1992. In addition, his running mate Harris would become the first woman to serve as Vice-President.As this blog is being readied the American voters are lining up to cast their ballots and select a ticket which will lead them for the next four years.  As the results pour in, the electoral map will slowly get filled with color. Let’s wait and watch what is the pattern which would emerge.