The first case of Covid was reported in Kerala in late January 2020. Soon thereafter India tightened up measures to arrest and contain the spread of the virus including suspension of all air travel in and out of the country. The 14-hour Janata Curfew, which was a trial-run for the lockdown implemented later that weekcaused widespread panic, especially amongst the lower strata of society including farmers and migrant workers who were left stranded and jobless overnight, from their far away homes and with no means of transportation. No one was immune to the ill effects and impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19). It not only brought the global economy to a standstill but set the clock backwards on the developmental progress of several nations. Economies of about 100 plus countries were overnight destroyed and businesses across the world namely hospitality, entertainment, aviation etc saw unimaginable major negative impact.Covid-19 disrupted global supply chain and impacted countries that were strong exporters (no output for their local companies), and also countries that are importers (lack of raw materials).

                The coronavirus pandemic is unlike any economic challenge that the world has faced in the past. All our textbook notions of how to spur economic growth in the face of a downturn have been rendered useless as lockdowns and the fear of getting infected have stopped or intermittently paused economic activity across the world. While the jury is still out on how many quarters it will take before a U-shaped or a V-shaped recovery will be visible, what is widely accepted is that the pandemic will cause a paradigm shift in how we live and how we work. Moreover, governments and central banks across the world have been quite proactive doing what they can to support businesses and revive employment with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimuli. As such one can expect that the economic effects of the pandemic will linger on for a long time even after it subsides.This unimaginable and once in a century crisis would no doubt leave deep scars and will be talked about for many a century. India too like many other countries took an economic hit.

                India today faces a huge deficit in government revenues and growth of income for at least another two quarters as the coronavirus hits economic activity of the country. A fall in investor sentiment impacts privatization plans, government and industry. The NDA government has set a target to make India a US$ 5 trillion economy by 2025. To achieve this now seemingly uphill and unattainable target the Indian economy would need to expand at a ~9% CAGR. This on the face of it looks difficult given the impact of Covid-19 related lockdowns on the economy. But the good news is that initial signs suggest that the economic downturn may have bottomed out, and foreign institutional investors have already started placing bets on the future prospects of India’s economy. There are indications that the worst is probably over. As the economy gets unlocked, manufacturing and industrial activities are gradually resuming and the lockdown induced pent-up demand is also aiding the economic rebound.

                When the economy went into a freefall, the government was quick to introduce a stimulus package, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’, approximately worth Rs. 20 trillion (US$ 270 billion) (~10% of India’s GDP) to jumpstart the economy. In addition, it took fresh measures to improve infrastructure, regulations and job opportunities which are expected to aid in sustained economic recovery and rebuilding. The ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ aims to make the country self-reliant with a focus on local manufacturers and service providers. The five pillars of this programme i.e., economy, infrastructure, technology-driven systems, demography and demand. Healthcare also needs to remain the top priority to achieve the economic sustainability of India which has been adequately addressed in Budget 2021. Further building sustainable infrastructure would help increase the production of capital goods, provide employment and will help revive private sector confidence.

                The ‘Make in India’ initiative was launched by the government in 2014 to encourage international firms select India as their manufacturing centre and galvanise the economy by investments in manufacturing and services. Today with numerous international companies looking to shift their manufacturing base from China due to intensifying Sino–US trade friction, India is vying to occupy a major share of the supply chain shift.

                The negative effects of coronavirus are well known. But every cloud including the Covid – 19 has a silver lining. So, let’s take a look at some of the long-term positive consequences of the coronavirus pandemic:

1) Digital Economy. Demonetisation was the shock that pushed India into the digital era as people adopted online payments in the absence or short supply of cash. Covid-19 is the shock that is forcing everyone to adopt digital in everything — from buying groceries to seeking online consultations with a doctor for minor conditions.

2) Redrawing Global Supply Chains:China has been the factory of the world for quite some time now and as a result it became the pillar of global supply chains for everything from chips to drug APIs. Post pandemic, the world has realised that it might not be a good idea to put all eggs in one basket. This means that countries like India that have long waited for their turn to make for the world would increasingly see more foreign businesses set up base and generate large scale employment.

3) Policy Reforms: The pandemic has led India to initiate reforms which were stuck in red tape for decades. For instance, the government has liberalised the coal sector and changed certain labour laws that were said to have been hindering businesses. In addition the government has also announced agri market reforms such as bringing in legislation that will allow farmers to sell their produce to whoever they choose.

4) Liquidity Rush in the Capital Markets: Central banks all around the world have cut interest rates and launched borrowing programmes to inject cash into the capital markets. The Reserve Bank of India came out with a plan in March to supply Rs 3.74 lakh crore of liquidity to the financial markets.

5) Nature of Jobs will be Transformed :The pandemic has led to a lot of companies rethinking office spaces and on-site work. Tech bigwigs such as Facebook, Google and Twitter have already announced giving staff the option to work from home in the long term. It’s only a matter of time that many more companies follow suit as they determine that spending on office spaces can be cut and productivity can be measured better in terms of to-do timesheets.

6) The air is Cleaner and the Environment is Greener: Greenhouse gas emissions and pollution levels across the country fell significantly. Half a year ago Delhi was gasping for a breath of fresh air saw “positively alpine” air quality a couple of days ago. This will spur need ensure a cleaner and greener environment

7)Boosting Localism: Until the beginning of 2020, it was all about internationalization and Gobalization of businesses.

8). Quality Family Time: However today it's all about staying home, inquiring about the health of your neighbours, leaving home only to buy locally and boosting the local community.This lockdown has inspired family-time and local-time among the millions of citizens living in the metros of the country.

9)Wildlife is Rejuvenating:Migratory birds are returning to lakes and water bodies they had once abandoned due to heavy pollution and human intervention.Nature is healing while people restricted their movement outdoors and vehicles retreat to garages and depots.

                Therefore, not everything about the novel coronavirus pandemic was abysmal as can be seen from the above few instances. Like every other pandemic, this too shall pass, but not without exacting its toll.

                The news of vaccines developed by Pfizer, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Bharat Biotech and other pharmaceutical giants will no doubt have a positive impact on the share markets of several economies. The world finally sees a ray of hope amidst the dark clouds of uncertainty. However, will the vaccine be effective in boosting the Indian economy? The vaccine rollout per se can itself be defined as the turning point which will affect the world socially as well as economically. As much as we would like to believe that vaccine will be a game changer, it’s better that we be cautious and vigilant. The vaccine generation would not only mean profits for the pharmaceutical firms, selling them in the open market and to the government. It would generate business for several other fields of business. Vaccine generation for a population of millions of people would mean increased demand for materials like syringes, rubber, plastic and glass vials, transportation facilities and refrigeration facilities.These businesses will be directly affected by the mass generation of the vaccine. When these business firms are paid, they will further spend the money on consumption. It is hoped that this would increase liquidity in the economy and would bring it back on track.However, the sad part is that the pandemic had crippled economies and damage inflicted in 2020 would be difficult to make up within a short period. We can safely expect that it would take us at least a year or two to go back to pre-COVID GDP and another couple of years to get the pre-crisis unemployment rate and growth rate back.

                At the current pace of around 400,000 jabs a day, India would have required over four years to cover the first batch of 300m Indians — health workers, frontline workers and the elderly — targeted for vaccination by August. Overloaded state health workers have so much else to do, including catching up on routine child immunisation programmes which came to a halt in last year’s lockdown. But the vaccinationdrive mercifully now looks set to gain new momentum after the Government took the correct decision to let private hospitals start providing the jabs at a meagre cost of Rs 250 per jab. From 01 March 21 Indians over age 60, and those over 45 with health problems that raise risks of severe Covid, can take a jab at any of the 20,000 private hospitals on payment or 10,000 government-run vaccination centres for free. It is believed that this decision follows urgent appeals from the Confederation of Indian Industry, and other business luminaries who warned of the risk of a disruptive new wave of cases unless private players were allowed to help accelerate the rollout. Unlike many developing countries, India does not lack vaccines. The Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine-maker, has stockpiled tens of millions of doses of its locally manufactured version of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab — and can produce 50m more doses a month.

                Every great global economic crisis in the past century has been followed by a period of boom. Real GDP growth in the 20th century and 21st century has been exponential despite the Great Depression of the 1930s, the recession after World War II, oil shocks of the 70s and most recently the Great Recession that followed the Lehman Brothers collapse. There is no reason why the global economy wouldn’t bounce back stronger this time around.Let us be optimistic.